A pragmatic policy learning approach to account for users' fatigue in repeated auctions
Abstract
Online advertising banners are sold in real-time through auctions.
Typically, the more banners a user is shown, the smaller the marginal
value of the next banner for this user is. This fact can be detected by
basic ML models, that can be used to predict how previously won auctions
decrease the current opportunity value. However, learning is not enough to
produce a bid that correctly accounts for how winning the current auction
impacts the future values. Indeed, a policy that uses this prediction to
maximize the expected payoff of the current auction could be dubbed
impatient because such policy does not fully account for the repeated
nature of the auctions. Under this perspective, it seems that most bidders
in the literature are impatient. Unsurprisingly, impatience induces a cost.
We provide two empirical arguments for the importance of this cost of
impatience. First, an offline counterfactual analysis and, second, a notable
business metrics improvement by mitigating the cost of impatience with
policy learning
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